Micron CEO 称 2027 和 2028 年内存供应将比 2026 年更紧张

I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.

It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.

I thought that the bulk of memory is already "technically bought" by the AI hyperscalers in the form of the big (not so) "hidden" debt? As in: the supply should already be known.

Why the need for speculation?

doesn't seem unlikely, i'd probably ask someone who won't massively benefit from people believing that it will be tighter though

Yeah, if anything, this makes it more clear to me that all this wonky supply/demand stuff will correct itself sooner rather than later. I've been wanting to upgrade my workstation but the DDR5 RDIMM sticks are unbelievably expensive, last few weeks I've almost pulled the trigger anyway, now I think I'll continue wait at least for the beginning of next year.

I have huge hopes fox CXMT entering the market and at least offsetting this nightmare. Just this week i've paid ~$1k USD for 2x32G DDR5 ECC, insane.

remind me in a few years when the same CEO is writing long post on Linkedin explaining why they need to let go half of the company.

Don't be too hard on the CEO. It will be unavoidable and he will be deeply sorry and humbled by their dedication throughout the years. Also, people will receive 2 months of benefits and FREE job search consulting (through an AI agent).

I mean, yes, but they are also right. They benefit from the market conditions, and contribute to the price increase, but it’s pretty clear there won’t be that much available shovels for a very long time

Especially when the equipment the shovel seller uses to produce shovels has been retooled to produce backhoes instead because of a digging bubble.

That's the one silver lining. I've always kept a lean desktop of mostly terminal based programs, and I've heard one too many times "just buy more RAM" as a defense for resource intensive graphical programs using Electron or modern browsers in general.

and here I hoped to suspect that my DRAM prices were all fake news run by my MITM ... goood, damn it

this would be the time to revive and evolve some of that Made In Germany Engineering ...

One factor constraining supply for RAM in the short-to-medium term is that memory manufacturers is that DDR5 (and assumedly DDR6) capacity is being moved to the much more profitable HBM.

I think supply will be tight until at least the AI market crashes, which could take years or happen within months. Nobody can really predict when this will happen but it's fairly clear (IMHO) that the revenue projections needed to justify the investments by OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX simply don't exist.

Without the AI boom, the economy is in recession and has been for awhile. We're in an affordability crisis and the energy crunch is coming.

Micron reported full year revenue of $133bn, up 256%, $100bn of which was DRAM, with non-GAAP earnings last quarter of their financial year of $37.7bn on $54.23bn of revenue. Seems pretty healthy to me. Any reason to think they'll go out of business?

How? They weren't doing poorly before 2026, and as far as I can tell, their profits have risen dramatically.

The plan is to make us all use shitty hardware like a chromebook and rent compute from the cloud for anything heavier than a web browser.

Honestly, FF became similar worse: On my 16 GB machine, when surfing some hours FF has allocated around 10-11 GB and for whatever reason it does not free them, unless I exit and restart it

While I definitely agree that there will be a slow down in purchase decisions for both consumers and businesses I struggle with this idea that there will be “no consumer products” in the market. There will be.

There will be, but the question who will be able to afford it.

It’s like saying that there is no housing crysis in several countries because the market is full of houses, apartments, etc.

You’re making what seems like a zero sum assumption. I am still using my M1 MacBook for work. I have a first version Mac Studio at home and countless other devices laying around. The world will continue to move forward and yes purchasing will slow down but folks will still be using their existing phones, laptops and other devices.

There’s always going to be consumer products, even if the value proposition is worse.

If there’s a silver lining, I hope it leads to more optimisation, less Electron, and less bloat.

Typed from my 8GB MacBook Neo; which is honestly plenty fast enough. It “feels” like a 16GB windows laptop, even tho of course I know it’s not, but there’s something about optimisation.

Lots of more niche products than Apple’s laptop won’t exist for a while due to the price of hardware. At a smaller scale the inflation hardware companies experience is really, really massive

Man whose compensation package is strongly tied to the economic performance of his company says company's economic performance will be great in 2027 and 2028 (so people should invest now to benefit from that bump)

There's a joke in here about an invisible hand, the two manufactures of ram doing something dirty in the dark, and the cost of a kidney.

In the short term, what `Neil44` mentioned "Yeah he doesn't want people delaying purchasing decisions" makes sense.

In the long term, the big comapnies are pushign to have consumers to adopt "terminals" back in old days.

- we use crappy devices, while cloud got beefy machines.